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Ditto when it goes from +3 to +3½, turning a possible push into a win for a 3-point underdog. The value of that half-point, confusingly, is not the exact same as the half-point difference between -7 and -6½, or +7 and +7½, which could turn pushes into wins in a seven-point game. The break-even price is, rather simply, the rate you would need to win a offered bet to break even over the long term. Your edge more than the residence appears when the odds are far more forgiving than your bet’s break-even price.

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